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☆ UK services businesses 'skirt with recession' in Oct-PMI survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The composite PMI - which includes weak data from the smaller manufacturing sector released on Tuesday - rose to 48.7 from 48.5 in September. "Forward-looking survey indicators suggested that service providers will continue to skirt with recession," Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global, said. "A shallow downturn in UK service sector activity persisted in October as businesses struggled to make headway against a backdrop of worsening domestic economic conditions and stretched household budgets." The services PMI showed the weakest rise in businesses' input costs since February 2021, as falling raw material costs and discounting by suppliers offset continued upward pressure from rising wage bills and fuel costs. Prices charged by services companies rose by the most in three months, although the increases were smaller than in the first half of the year.

Persons: Hannah McKay, Tim Moore, BoE, David Milliken, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, P, PMI, P Global, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, September's, United States

☆ Bank of England set to hold rates again, but markets see no cuts on the horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. "U.K. economic activity appears to have slowed further, the housing market is weaker, consumer spending is falling, and inflationary pressure is showing further signs of dissipating. U.K. inflation came in at 6.7% in September , unchanged from the previous month and considerably higher than in other G7 economies. "The only way that we can rationalise this is if U.K. inflation remains stuck at 3% or higher forever, and/or the U.K. economy avoids a meaningful recession," he said. The European Central Bank last week held rates steady at their current record high of 4%, ending a run of 10 straight hikes.

Persons: Mike Riddell, BoE, Swati Dhingra, Riddell, Abbas Khan, Haskel, Mann, Dhingra, Catherine Mann, Allianz's Riddell Organizations: Bank of England, Allianz Global Investors, P, MPC, Bank, Monetary, LONDON, Barclays, U.S . Federal, Treasury, European Central Bank Locations: City, London, Britain, Israel

☆ House-building slump brings biggest UK construction fall since 2020
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Partly finished houses are seen on a new housing development under construction in Liverpool, Britain June 2, 2023. The all-sector PMI - which includes services, manufacturing and construction - edged down to 48.2 in September, its lowest since January 2021. The house-building index dropped to 38.1 from 40.7 - its lowest since April 2009, apart from two months in 2020. Commercial construction also fell as clients grew more concerned about the economic outlook and civil engineering saw the steepest decline in over a year. Alongside the weaker activity, the survey showed the biggest rise in subcontractors' availability in 14 years and more stable input costs after steep rises between mid 2020 and mid 2023.

Persons: Phil Noble, Tim Moore, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, David Milliken, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, P, Reuters, PMI, P Global Market Intelligence, Nationwide, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Liverpool, Britain, August's, Bank of England, London, Manchester, Birmingham

☆ UK factory activity slows sharply in September - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - British manufacturing activity slowed sharply in September, though less steeply than the month before when it shrank at the fastest rate in more than three years, a survey showed on Monday. Output, new orders and employment were all cut back further, amid weaker intakes of new work from both domestic and overseas clients," S&P Global said. The most recent official data showed British manufacturing output fell 0.8% in July although volumes were 3.0% higher than a year earlier. S&P said 55% of manufacturers expected growth over the next 12 months, fewer than in August, while 9% expected a contraction. "Optimism was linked to a hoped-for market recovery, planned growth initiatives and a more stable inflationary environment," S&P said.

Persons: David Milliken, Hugh Lawson Organizations: P, P Global, Manufacturers, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, China, Brazil

☆ UK builders suffer sharp fall in orders as rates rise -PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Workers stand on scaffolding at a residential building in London, Britain, March 7, 2016. Builders cited weaker economic conditions, cutbacks to new building projects and local planning delays as factors holding back house-building activity. S&P said total new orders for the construction sector fell at the fastest pace since May 2020. "Resilient demand for commercial work and infrastructure projects are helping to keep the construction sector in expansion mode for now," Moore said. However, forward-looking measures of the construction PMI fell, with business activity expectations for the year ahead the weakest since January.

Persons: Toby Melville, Tim Moore, Moore, Suban Abdulla, William Schomberg, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, P, P Global Market Intelligence, Builders, Bank of England's, PMI, Thomson Locations: London, Britain

☆ China's yuan is displacing other top global currencies in trade, but not the US dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's share of global payment transactions on the SWIFT system grew to 3% in July. But that hasn't come at the expense of the dollar, which had a record high 46.5% share on SWIFT. A greater role of BRICS and other emerging markets in global trade may create more natural demand for alternatives to USD, but this has not happened so far. AdvertisementAdvertisementFor its part, the dollar's share of SWIFT transactions is holding relatively steady, accounting for 46.5% in July and 42% in the first half of 2023. As an example, China has been steadily building an alternative to the Western-dominated SWIFT system, with the Cross-border International Payments System, or CIPS.

Persons: BRICS, China's Organizations: ING, SWIFT, Service, FX, dollarization Locations: Wall, Silicon, China

[1/3] Euro currency bills are pictured at the Croatian National Bank in Zagreb, Croatia, May 21, 2019. The services component sank to 48.3 from 50.9, its first time below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction this year. The single currency weakened after the German data, hitting its lowest level against the dollar since June 15 at $1.0805. "The decline in services activity was a sharp move and we've seen a soft euro environment," said Niels Christensen, chief analyst at Nordea. The spot yuan opened at 7.2870 per dollar on Wednesday and was last changing hands at 7.2899.

Persons: Antonio Bronic, Niels Christensen, Martin Beck, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Nordea's Christensen, Colin Asher, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Kim Coghill, Mark Potter, Chizu Organizations: Croatian National Bank, REUTERS, P, European Central Bank, PMI, Bank of England, Reuters, Federal, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Mizuho, Thomson Locations: Zagreb, Croatia, Britain, July's, U.S, Europe, tenterhooks, Tokyo, London, Singapore

But signs of a slowdown are mounting, highlighting the BoE's dilemma as it continues to grapple with inflation. But the BoE looks set to keep on raising rates with inflation still more than three times its 2% target. Below are key readings of Britain's economy that the BoE will assess before its next scheduled announcement on interest rates on Sept. 21. But many analysts expect the lagged impact of the BoE's rate rises to hit spending soon, adding to the drag on the economy. Many economists think the delayed impact of higher interest rates and still elevated inflation will hit growth in the coming months.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, BoE, Andrew Bailey, GfK, Sumanta Sen, Devika Organizations: REUTERS, Bank, Bank of England, Brexit, P, CIPS, Nationwide, Halifax, Reuters Graphics LABOUR, Employers, European Union, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: Britain

☆ Factory slump and cost-of-living squeeze puts UK economy on course to shrink
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The BoE said earlier this month it only saw inflation falling below 4% from the second quarter of 2024. The PMI survey recorded the slowest growth in output prices since February 2021. Manufacturers - who make up 10% of Britain's economy - reported the biggest fall in output prices since February 2016, echoing wider weakness in the sector. "Companies are reporting reduced orders for goods and services as demand is increasingly hit by the cost-of-living crisis, higher interest rates, export losses and concerns about the economic outlook," Williamson said. Manufacturers said this fall appeared to be an attempt to reduce the need for working capital at a time of rising interest rates.

Persons: Carl Recine, BoE, Queen, Chris Williamson, Sterling, James Smith, P's Williamson, Williamson, David Milliken, William Schomberg, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, P, P Global Market Intelligence, Bank of England, ING, Manufacturers, Thomson Locations: Altrincham, Britain

☆ UK FTSE 100 at three-month low as rate hike worries grip; Currys slumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Shashwat Chauhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) fell 1.2%, hitting its lowest level since March 24. Currys (CURY.L) tumbled 13.3% to its lowest level in more than 20 years after the electricals retailer reported a 38% slump in full-year profit. The commodity-heavy UK benchmark has been underperforming its peers this year amid volatility in resource prices over an uncertain global outlook. Among individual stocks, United Utilities (UU.L) climbed 1.8% after Morgan Stanley raised the water utility firm's rating to "overweight" from "equal-weight." Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Dhanya Ann ThoppilOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: tanked, Chris Beauchamp, Beauchamp, Morgan Stanley, Shashwat Chauhan, Dhanya Ann Thoppil Organizations: United Utilities, P, FTSE, U.S, U.S . Federal, IG Group, HSBC, Standard Chartered, Prudential, CAB, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, U.S ., Bengaluru

In Asia, while factory activity expanded marginally in China, it contracted in Japan and South Korea as Asia's economic recovery struggled to maintain momentum. REUTERS/Siyi LiuChina's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI eased to 50.5 in June from 50.9 in May, the private survey showed. The figure, combined with Friday's official survey that showed factory activity extending declines, adds to evidence the world's No. South Korea's PMI fell to 47.8 in June, extending its downturn to a record 12th consecutive month on weak demand in Asia and Europe. Factory activity also contracted in Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia, the PMI surveys showed.

Persons: Rory Fennessy, lockdowns, Toru Nishihama, Siyi Liu China's, Jonathan Cable, Sam Holmes, David Evans Organizations: PMI, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, P, Dai, Research, REUTERS, P Global, Reuters, Jibun, of, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Japan, South Korea, China, TOKYO, Europe, Britain, Asia, United States, European, U.S, Dezhou, Shandong province, South, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, of Japan's

☆ Big global employers plan modest cuts to office space: Knight Frank
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Suban Abdulla | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Hannah BeierLONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - Half of large multinational companies plan to reduce office space as they adjust to hybrid working patterns, although the cuts are likely to be modest as few plan to go fully remote, a survey from real estate agents Knight Frank showed on Tuesday. Knight Frank said 50% of employers with more than 50,000 staff intended to reduce office space, typically by 10% to 20% in the next three years, as they reassess their needs following the introduction of remote working during the COVID-19 pandemic. But at companies with up to 10,000 staff split across different countries, most expected to increase office space. Mat Oakley, head of commercial research at Savills said demand for office space in London had increased, and flexible working appeared less of a challenge than previously thought. "There are definitely challenges for office demand but these have been largely overstated particularly when you take into consideration employment growth," Oakley said.

Persons: Hannah Beier LONDON, Knight Frank, Tim Armstrong, Antony Antoniou, Robert Irving Burns, Mat Oakley, Savills, Oakley, Suban Abdulla, David Milliken Organizations: FMC Corporation, REUTERS, Bank of England, British, Land Securities, P, Thomson Locations: Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, U.S, Britain, Mat, London

☆ Vast China-Russia resources trade shifts to yuan from dollars in Ukraine fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Chen Aizhu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

[1/2] Model of natural gas pipeline, Russian and Chinese flags and Yuan and Rouble banknotes are seen in this llustration taken, September 7, 2022. "For now, and for the foreseeable next few years, I think the trade using RMB will predominantly be used for commodity and energy trade." Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that two-thirds of trade between Beijing and Moscow is now settled in roubles or yuan. Surging commodity imports pushed China's trade deficit with Russia to $38 billion last year, although the gap has narrowed in the first four months of 2023. Gazprom, which said last September it had agreed with CNPC to settle gas trade in roubles and yuan, did not respond to requests for comment.

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, April 28 (Reuters) - Chinese banks are ramping up efforts to promote international use of the yuan, and reporting a surge in cross-border yuan business from the country's booming trade with Russia and deepening ties with the Middle East. Harbin Bank Co (6138.HK), in China's Heilongjiang province neighboring Russia, saw its cross-border yuan business grow nine-fold last year to a record, as the Sino-Russia trade grew briskly after the Ukraine war began. Industrial Bank Co (601166.SS), whose cross-border, corporate payment business jumped 50% last year, has also been actively promoting CIPS, China's own global payment system. The bank said it currently helps 153 foreign and Chinese banks connect to CIPS, to advance China's yuan internationalisation strategy. "Increasing the use of yuan in pricing, and settling cross-border oil and gas trade will give a boost to yuan internationalization."

The PMI was driven by the services sector as consumer spending on travel, leisure and entertainment showed strength while manufacturing remained weak. S&P Global's input price index - a good guide to future inflation pressures - showed the slowest growth in costs for firms since March 2021, although overall cost pressures remained high by historical standards. There were also signs of recovery in Friday's consumer confidence survey by polling firm GfK which rose to its highest since February last year, albeit to weak levels. There was a reminder of the problems facing many consumers in official retail sales data also published on Friday. "A strong performance from retailers in January and February means the three-month picture shows positive growth for the first time since August 2021," he said.

☆ Gold slips on firmer dollar ahead of US payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File PhotoApril 6 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell on Thursday as the dollar firmed ahead of a much awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls report, as investors sought clarity on whether the Federal Reserve might take a breather on its monetary tightening path. * Investors now await Friday's non-farm payrolls report for March, with economists polled by Reuters expecting new jobs of about 240,000. * Markets see a 54.2% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. * While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal.

☆ UK service firms report second month of growth as prospects improve -PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Adding to signs of recovery in the economy, Wednesday's final reading of the S&P Global/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of 52.9 was below February's 53.5 but above the 50 mark denoting growth for a second month in a row. It was also a touch higher than a preliminary March reading of 52.8 and contrasted with a more downbeat picture for the smaller manufacturing sector last month. The PMI showed business expectations improved for a fifth straight month and optimism about business prospects was the highest since March last year. S&P Global's input price index showed growth in costs was the slowest since May 2021. Although still high by historical standards, that represented welcome news for the BoE which is worried about the persistence of the recent surge in inflation.

☆ Gold dips as stronger dollar dampens appeal
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices slipped on Monday as a sturdy dollar made the greenback-denominated metal less affordable for buyers holding other currencies. FUNDAMENTALS* Spot gold was down 0.3% at $1,962.36 per ounce, as of 0049 GMT. * The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion rises when interest rates are increased to bring down inflation. * Markets see a 48.4% chance of the Fed hiking rates by a quarter point in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. DATA/EVENTS (GMT)0145 China Caixin Mfg PMI Final0750 France S&P Global Mfg PMI0755 Germany S&P Global/BME Mfg PMI0800 EU S&P Global Mfg Final PMI0830 UK S&P GLBL/CIPS Mfg Final PMI1345 US S&P Global Mfg PMI Final1400 US ISM Manufacturing PMIReporting by Kavya Guduru in Bengaluru; editing by Uttaresh VenkateshwaranOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ London stocks fall as fears of a banking crisis linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Shashwat Chauhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Banks fall as fears of a banking crisis spikeEnergy down tracking lower oil pricesUK Feb retail sales rise unexpectedlyFTSE 100 down 1.4%, FTSE 250 off 1.0%March 24 (Reuters) - London stocks fell on Friday, dragged by energy shares that tracked oil prices lower, while banks extended declines at the end of a turbulent week as fears of a global banking crisis lingered. The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) fell 1.4%, extending losses after a near 1% drop on Thursday. British banks (.FTNMX301010) lost 2.7%, falling for a third straight session, joining their European peers in Friday's slide. Energy majors Shell (SHEL.L) and BP (BP.L) fell 2.5% and 2.5%, respectively, dragging the broader energy sector (.FTNMX601010) down 2.5%, as oil prices extended losses on worries about a potential oversupply. Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ UK construction sector rebounds in February - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Suban Abdulla | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P Global/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the construction sector jumped to 54.6 in February, up from 48.4 in January, its highest since May 2022 and well above economists' average expectation of 49.1 in a Reuters poll. The sharp rebound mirrors a similar increase in Friday's services PMI, which grew at its fastest pace in June, easing many analysts' concerns that Britain's economy was slipping into recession. However, Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global, said cutbacks in new house building projects remained a weak spot for activity in the construction sector. The house-building industry was the worst-performing construction sector as residential building work fell for the third month in a row. The wider all-sector PMI, which includes previously released services and manufacturing data, rose to its highest since last July at 53.2 for February, up from January's 48.5.

☆ The UK's lagging economy shows some signs of recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

JP Morgan last week raised its projection for gross domestic output growth in 2023 to 0.4% from a previous estimate of 0.1%. Britain is the only Group of Seven (G7) economy still smaller than before the coronavirus pandemic. Below is a summary of recent gauges of the economy and how investors have increased their bets on future BoE rate hikes. Reuters GraphicsUK AS G7 LAGGARDDespite the improvement signs, Britain lags its peers in terms of its recovery from the pandemic. Data to the end of 2022 shows Britain is the only G7 economy yet to recover its level of the end of 2019.

☆ Hopes for Northern Ireland deal send sterling higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Sterling rose on Monday amid renewed speculation Britain and the European Union will finalise a Northern Ireland deal, which could resolve post-Brexit tensions. The deal is aimed at solving tensions caused by 2020 post-Brexit arrangements governing the British province and its open border with EU member Ireland. Sterling rose 0.36% against the U.S. dollar to $1.1982, after slipping to an almost two month low against the greenback. ING strategists agreed, saying the key focus for sterling would remain interest rate hike expectations. On the other hand, a strengthening dollar could send sterling to $1.1850 this week, ING said in a note.

☆ UK business activity unexpectedly rebounds in February -flash PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Much better than anticipated PMI data for February indicate encouraging resilience of the economy," said S&P Global Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson. "While many companies continue to report tough operating conditions, especially in the manufacturing sector, the broader business mood has been buoyed by signs of inflation peaking, supply chains improving and recession risks easing." Williamson added that the survey data boosted the likelihood of a BoE rate hike next month, something which most economists polled by Reuters already expect. The PMI for the services sector rose to 53.3 in February from January's 48.7, the highest reading since June last year. Factory activity continued to contract but at a much reduced pace, with the manufacturing PMI increasing to 49.2 from 47.0, close to 50, the no-change mark.

☆ Drop in business activity flags UK recession risk - flash PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The fall contrasted with a slight rise in business activity in the euro zone. "Weaker-than-expected PMI numbers in January underscore the risk of the UK slipping into recession," S&P Global's Chief Business Economist, Chris Williamson, said. However, a widely expected fall in output this year will weigh on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as it considers how much further to raise interest rates on Feb. 2. Tuesday's PMI data showed that prices charged by businesses rose at the slowest rate since August 2021, although the increase was still steep by historic standards. Businesses cut a small number of jobs, in contrast to the rapid hiring through much of 2021 and 2022.

☆ UK construction activity falls by most since May 2020 -PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - British construction activity fell last month at its sharpest rate since May 2020, as new orders dried up in the face of rising interest rates and broader cost pressures, a survey showed on Friday. "The UK's construction sector registered a relatively poor finish to 2022, with business activity falling into decline following a three-month growth sequence amid the fastest contraction in new work since the initial pandemic period in May 2020," S&P economist Lewis Cooper said. Britain's construction sector had been performing strongly earlier in 2022, with output up 7.4% in the year to October according to official data. However, Bank of England interest rates have been rising steeply - hitting a 14-year high of 3.5% in December - and house prices have recently started to fall. The construction PMI showed falls in both house building and civil engineering work.

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